Pop-up quiz: What will happen to housing prices in 2006?

Predictions about what will happen to housing prices in 2006 are beginning to pop-up on line, so we've created our own "pop quiz" to get your opinion, too.  Quick:  how much will housing prices will rise or fall in Greater Boston in 2006?  OK, now the pop question.  Click on the tiny image above and a full-sized graph of housing price increases and decreases by quarter over the past 30 years in Boston/Quincy will pop-up.

Do those real estate cycles change your predictions about what will happen in 2006? 

If not, take a second look.  Compare the price spikes over the past five years to the more modest increase of prices which peaked in the mid-1980s.  If prices increased twice as high in the first half of this decade will they decrease twice as far during the second half of this decade?

Your comments, particularly regarding any factors which may mitigate or accelerate the coming down cycle, are welcome. Most importantly, please let us know if your predictions changed when the graph popped up. Your comments are welcome here, or by calling our reader line 617-876-2117 to record a sound bite for potential use in a future podcast.