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March 23, 2006

Pay no attention to that 9.5% decline in median prices

Askingprices_globe1_3The Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their official February housing statistics yesterday; and once again, a number of leading bubble bloggers in Boston hosted an online chat to make sense of the Realtor-speak.

Help me with this puzzler from MAR's housing report:

"Predictions of steep price declines in home values made this past fall remain largely unfounded. While the current median price is 9.5 percent below the record high monthly median of $375,000 set in July and August 2005, today’s prices largely reflect healthier inventory levels, which has eased upward pressure on prices, rather than plunging property values."

Median prices dropping nearly 10% in six months?  Sounds like a pretty steep decline to me, how about you?  As always, comments are welcome below, or on own blog readers line 617-876-2117 for possible use in a future podcast.

Bill Wendel | 11:41 PM in Bubble Hour, Market trends, Price trends, Real Estate Bubble, Timing the market | Permalink


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Let's take the sheepel approach to market prediction. 10% every 6 months, never changing because markets always go in straight lines means, means after three years the value would be 50% deflated. Only a 50% loss in five years sounds like a soft landing?

Posted by: q | Mar 24, 2006 9:54:40 AM

This is actually an 11.44% decline from the peak if you adjust for inflation. Also, the last six months have all seen year over year declines in inflation adjusted terms. Here are some graphs:


Posted by: bostonbubble | Mar 24, 2006 4:10:29 PM

Hope other readers take the time to visit your analysis on the link above. May I quote a paragraph or two here in this thread, or to give your insights the visibility they deserve, include them in a new post? Thank you so much for calculating year over year inflation adjusted declines, and hope every would be home buyer in Massachusetts takes note. Brilliant work!

Posted by: RealEstateCafe | Mar 24, 2006 5:00:17 PM

Sure, quote away. I'm glad you found it useful.

Posted by: bostonbubble | Mar 24, 2006 5:26:55 PM

The 10% correction that has occured in the last 6 months is agood thing, prices are coming back to realistic level, and this correction will shake out everyone and their grandmother who thought that they were builders , developers speculators etc.This will seperate the men from the boys

Posted by: Tony | Mar 25, 2006 10:36:30 AM


Sounds like you are a professional builder. Another professional, someone who works for me, actually asked me to make a new post with a graph showing that 10 percent swings in season pricing are not uncommon in Mass. Is that your experience, too, or is that phenomena, if it is true, is limited to existing homes rather than new construction?

Either way, thanks for taking time to contribute your perspective. All are welcome as the exchange of insights will hopefully, help all of us make more informed decisions -- pros and amatuers alike.

Posted by: RealEstateCafe | Mar 25, 2006 10:45:20 AM

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