Counter Intelligence: The Real Estate Cafe Weblog

How will the Bailout Bill impact home buyers & sellers? txt your answer

If you're unable to join us at the TweetUp tonight at TogetherInMotion, One Broadway in Arlington, text your response to our Wiffiti board so anyone online or at the TweetUp can read your perspective. 

Send us an email if you'd like to participate in one of our upcoming Bubble Hours or "Fear of Foreclosure" support groups for anxious homeowners.

Economists mirror consumer survey: "Housing prices apt to fall much more"

(Turn off pop-up blocker, and click on table for larger image.)

An AP story hidden on page four of the Boston Globe business section, entitled "Housing prices apt to fall much more," reports that:

"A group of 10 economists says that home prices in the United States are only halfway through their fall."

"...and most of the further erosion should occur this year."

Those predictions are consistent with consumer surveys conducted by The Real Estate Cafe and Boston Bubble six months ago (December 2007 & January 2008), which revealed that consumers expected housing prices to bottom out sometime in 2009 or 2010. 

When consumers in Greater Boston were asked to graph housing prices over the next 5 years (through 2012) in their local city or town, the composite pattern above emerged.  A comparison of that table to the results of the same question asked two years ago (January 2006), reveals that consumer price expectations have taken a sharp downturn. 

A recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston projecting that foreclosures may not peak in Massachusetts until the 2nd quarter of 2010, could send housing price expectations even lower.  What's your prediction as we end the 3rd quarter of 2008? 

NOW, what do you think will happen to housing prices in 2008 & beyond?

Please take a few minutes to update this survey of housing price expectations in Massachusetts after a week of negative housing headlines. This survey is being conducted independently by The Real Estate Cafe but we are eager to share the results with the press.

CLICK HERE, not photo below, to start survey:  What do YOU think will happen to housing prices in 2008 & beyond?

Survey BLITZ for TV News: Boston housing prices in 2008 & beyond

A local TV news department is working on a story today about the housing market, so The Real Estate Cafe and BostonBubble.com have volunteered to conduct a quick consumer survey to inform their reporting. What do YOU think will happen to housing prices in 2008 & beyond, and if you are in the housing market, how will that influence your home buying plans for 2008?

The survey takes just a few minutes and we need your opinion AS SOON AS POSSIBLE to enrich tonight's TV news!

Privacy Policy: Survey responses will be tabulated as a group without attribution to individual respondents. Your identity is confidential will not be shared with anyone.

Pre-testing consumer survey of housing prices in Greater Boston: 2008 to 2012

Over the past three years, The Real Estate Cafe has blogged about the real estate bubble. Now we'd like to get YOUR opinion about what will happen to housing prices in Greater Boston and an update on your home buying plans for 2008.

Right now, we're only looking for a few respondents to help us PRE-TEST our survey.  Can you spare a few minutes?  Your feedback will help us better understand the market and better serve home buyers like you.

Privacy Policy: Survey responses will be tabulated as a group without attribution to individual respondents. Your identify is confidential will not be shared with anyone.

Wait 2.0: Negative cycle creating marginal or mega-savings for patient homebuyers?

At the end of 2006, one of our blog posts linked to this cautionary (albeit biased) advice from the outgoing president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors:

“With home prices leveling, interest rates remaining low, inventory still plentiful and more sellers accepting market-based pricing, Bay State homebuyers have a special window of opportunity right now,” Mr. Wluka said. “We just don’t know how long the window will stay open, with factors remaining so favorable. For anyone trying to time the market, the waiting game may be a big mistake.”

Eight months later, a survey of economists and the interview below on Marketplace.org, suggest that waiting could create more savings opportunities for homebuyers from what economists call a "negative cycle."  How much have you saved by delaying your home buying plans over the past year or two, and how much more do you think you can save my waiting longer?  How long will you wait, or will you be bargain hunting this Fall and winter as seasonal markdowns accelerate savings opportunities?

Marketplace.org:  "Ride Dow roller coaster, or sit it out? (8/30/07)
Links and excerpts selected by The Real Estate Cafe, audio online above (but no transcript yet):

Marketplace host:  You get the feeling that investors can't seem to make up their minds?  ...Once emotions loosen the markets, where it all ends, can be anyone's guess.  ...That has a lot of us in some kind of limbo these days.

Steve Tripoli, Marketplace:  Even well-healed potential buyers are thinking twice these days.  Lois Vitt has written a book about real estate that focuses on buyer and seller psychology.  She says "caution" is what happens when markets turn sharply south.

Dr. Lois Vitt, author:  Fear is contagious and that's what's going on right now.  People are afraid.  And so they worry that they might get in trouble if they go ahead with their plans and so people are holding back.

Steve Tripoli, Marketplace:  Nationwide chatter about a housing bubble, and further price drops isn't helping; even if it is accurate says Wellesley College housing expert Karl Case.

Karl Case, housing economist:   I've got a t-shirt that says, "Mr. Housing Bubble:  I pop and you are done."  There's just a lot of press, a lot of news about the mortgage market, about auctions, houses, about foreclosures.  If you are in the market about to make a big decision about buying a large asset, that is going to scare you.

Steve Tripoli, Marketplace:  It's not only that a house is a big asset, says Case, but it's one most buyers will hold for a long time.

Karl Case, housing economist:   And they borrowed the money to do it.  So they naturally have expectations about whether it's likely for it to go up or down, and it is clear that the demand is sensitive to those expectations.

Steve Tripoli, Marketplace:  The problem with this negative market psychology is that it can be self-fulfilling.  Buyers hold back, prices drop; so more mortgages exceed the home's value, and prices drop more.  Then buyers pull back even more.  I asked re Karl Case and Lois Vit, "Are we are in danger of that kind of negative feedback cycle right now?"

Karl Case, housing economist:   Absolutely.

Dr .Lois Vitt, author:  Absolutely.

Steve Tripoli, Marketplace:  And all of the sophisticated computer models, and hedge fund managers in the world can't predict where that kind of negative thinking will take us.  So fasten your seat belts.  I'm Steve Tripoli for Marketplace.

Listen to NPR's "All Things Considered" this evening for more insight into the negative cycle spiraling downward in the housing market.  Here's a key pull quote:

Economists expect total declines of about 10 percent throughout many parts of the country — and up to 25 percent in some of the formerly hottest markets.

Waiting game? Prices in 2007 vs 2010

Turn off pop-up blocker, and click on table for larger image.

The Boston Globe is asking readers whether prices will keep falling, remain steady, or begin to rise again in 2007.  We asked our blog readers a similar question last year, but as the responses above show, wanted them to graph price changes through the end of the decade.  We'd be glad to repeat that survey, but for now, just want to know whether you will make your own 2007 real estate resolutions based on where prices will be over the next 12 months or five years?  Does it make a difference?  Let us know what you think about what one industry spokesperson says about playing the "Waiting game."

Prepping Donald Trump for Boston expo: What would a Real Estate Apprentice do?

What advice do you think Donald Trump will give homebuyers at the Real Estate & Wealth Expo this weekend in Boston? 

What questions would YOU like to ask him, or hear him answer in his 60 minute Q & A? 

If you were his Real Estate Apprentice, what information and local market trends would you review him before he advises ordinary buyers and sellers across Massachusetts?

Would you outline potential risks of buying in the current market, or do you think that might get you FIRED?

Should we collect our thoughts below and email them to his staff, or simply get together -- in person or online, before or afterwords -- to discuss the presentations, exhibitors, and our own perspectives of the market?

Survey results: Where are housing prices headed in 2006?

It's good to be posting original content to The Real Estate Cafe's blog again after our second bout of bloggers block. Like the first time, the slump lasted for nearly 50 days but this time we had an excuse:  we've been waiting for enough responses to go public with our 2006 homebuyer survey.  The first graph appears above, and if you click on the image to enlarge it, the results speak for themselves. 

We'll post more results in coming days, as well as commentary on the findings and their potential implications for homebuyers and sellers in Greater Boston.  The survey is closed at this point, but you can comment online or by record a sound bite, for potential use our real estate bubble audio time capsule (a.k.a. podcast), by calling on our reader line:  617-876-2117.

Event planning:  Discuss housing bubble and survey results in person with other homebuyers & sellers

More than 40% of the survey respondents said they would like a monthly (or bi-weekly) update on the real estate bubble, and we have already corresponded with several other bloggers in New England -- LowellDeeds.com, BostonBubble.com, and MassHouseMarket.blogspot.com -- about getting together offline to exchange perspectives with the public.  Would Thursday night meetings in Cambridge work for everyone?  Your feedback is welcome below or by emailing us privately at [email protected]

Homebuyer survey: Graph prices thru 2010

During 2005, The Real Estate Cafe tried to keep its clients as well as the general public informed about the real estate bubble through our blog. Now we'd like to invite our blog readers in Greater Boston to give us YOUR opinion on the housing market and homebuying plans for 2006.

The survey takes just a few minutes and we need *** FIVE *** more respondents to reach our goal of 100. Your feedback will help us provide better services to consumers.

Privacy Policy: Survey responses will be tablulated as a group without attribution to individual respondents. Your identify is so confidential we don't even ask for your name or your email address, so there's no way we can share or, God forbid, sell them to anyone who might send you junk mail or spam.